Mark Mulder, Roy Halladay, Trevor Cahill and overcoming BAD rookie seasons

The general argument when it comes to Trevor Cahill is that his detractors will point to his inability to strike anyone out and his propensity to issue free passes as a reason that he is no more than a #4 starter. Trevor Cahill's supporters will make the rebuttle that he hasn't been using his most effective swing and miss pitch this season and control can be taught. Basically it is the "development argument"--Cahill has the ability to develop into a very good pitcher.

Knowing how highly I thought of Cahill coming into the season, I thought it might be a good idea to look into the likelihood of progression into the future ace/#2 starter most people thought he would develop into coming into the season. Looking at Cahill's season, it is easy to see why he has had such a rough time in the major leagues--those who argue against Cahill are right. He has a very low K/9, a high BB/9 and a subsequently very bad K/BB. Now pitchers have been able to develop one side of the equation or the other, but most successful pitchers enter the league at least somewhat proficient in one of these categories. Either they have very good control (they throw a lot of strikes) and cannot strike anyone out (ala Rick Porcello this year) or they send plenty of batters back to the dugout ok strikes and have a hard time hitting the zone (ala Clayton Kershaw). As these pitchers move foward, there is a slew of evidence that they at least have the opportunity to improve as there is a track record of pitchers who have done the same (Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, etc). But are there pitchers who have had problems in both categories--to the same extent that Cahill has them--who have gone on to be successful starters in Major League Baseball?

This is what I sought to find out. My criteria was this:

1) Pitchers who had a K/BB ratio under 1.30 with more than 100 IP

2) Who later went on to post an above average FIP** for 3 years

3) They must not have exceeded 200 IP before their 1.30 K/BB season. We are looking at the ability of players to develop a good K/BB ratio not someone who is trying to bounce back from a bad season (Kenny Rogers, I'm looking at you)

For my purposes, I went searched back only to 1990. However, as I was looking through I found a couple pitchers who fit the bill going back into their careers. (Mike Moore was one of them)

All told, the results were slim. Here's what I found.

1982 Mike Moore (.092 K/BB)--immediately had 3 straight seasons under 3.60 FIP and 3 more out of the next 6 seasons above average--all told 6 out of his next 9 seasons were above average

Jose Mesa--I'm not even going to put down the years and K/BB ratios. From 1987-1992 (4 seasons), he was downright awful. However, in 1993, he began to put it together and put a string of 4 very good seasons together. He scattered a couple more very good seasons in over the rest of his career, but still came out with a career FIP of 4.31.

1991 Darryl Kile (1.19 K/BB)--Actually posted a solid 3.69 ERA in his rookie year, but had a FIP of 4.66 to back it up. Went on to post very good FIPs in 5 of the next 6 years. Wasn't quite the same after his year-29 season and ended up with a 4.24 career FIP. Solid and certainly over those 6 years he was a #3 starter.

1993 Tim Wakefield (0.79 K/BB)--Walked a LOT and Ked almost no one in his second season in the league. Went on to learn how to strikeout more and brought his BBs a little more under control scattering a few above average seasons throughout a very long career. Career FIP of 4.72 suggests that he is no more than a 4th starter.

1999 Roy Halladay (1.04 K/BB)--Now here is the first really interesting one. The others were pitchers who had moderate success but no real aces among the bunch. This is the first one to have prolonged success. After his rookie campaign (again with a a very good ERA that did not show the tale of the terrible FIP), Halladay's ERA combusted and he was sent down the minors to rework his mechanics. He came back to the majors and hasn't looked back since. His career FIP is 3.47--a true ace.

2000 Mark Mulder (1.28 K/BB)--Here is another interesting one. Mark Mulder came up from the minors in a hurry and had a very bad season his rookie year. After this, however, Mulder showed true ace potential putting up three straight seasons among the top pitchers in FIP. Injuries derailed his career and he was never same after 2003. All things equal, after his rookie season Mulder was an ace almost to the level of Halladay when he was healthy.

Apart from this handful of outliers, most other pitchers who put up K/BB ratios in the realm of Trevor Cahill faded into oblivion. The reason that I point out Mark Mulder is because so many people from the Athletics organization continue to point to Mark Mulder as a reason for keeping the A's rookies in the major leagues while they were struggling. Billy Beane specifically pointed to Mark Mulder as a guy who learned by taking some shots and then grew as a result of it. When Beane pointed to Mulder as a model, I didn't realize quite how closely Cahill's performance resembled Mulder's. For everyone's sake, Cahill had better hope that Beane was right to compare him to Mark Mulder because there are very few young pitchers who have struggled to the extent that Cahill has and gone on to be successful.

I would take it further and say that if Cahill's career follows the path of Moore, Mesa or Wakefield, he would rightly be considered a bust--or at least a disappointment. Coming into the league, Cahill was expected to be a frontline starter. Anything less than Mulder's performance (minus injury) would seem to be failure.

Better yet, Beane should hope that Cahill defies all odds and reaches for the furthest outlier--Roy Halladay. The odds are certainly against him, but Cahill has the track record and minor league scouting report to back it up.

If Cahill doesn't become the next outlier then he can expect to fade into oblivion along with Jimmy Anderson, Kirk Rueter, Ken Hill and Nate Cornejo.

**Note: FIP stands for "Fielding independent pitching." The basic idea of FIP comes from the premise that pitchers tend to have very little (specifically no) control over whether balls in play turn into outs or not. Pitchers can have good ERAs while actually performing quite poorly due to good defense and a bit of luck. This is similar to pitchers being able rack up wins while actually performing poorly although ERA is still MUCH more dependable than wins in terms of determining pitcher performance. Suffice it to say that "FIP" is a better way to determine whether or not a pitcher is performing well.

The start of something new

I will start this out by giving a little bit of history. Going back 20 years ago to October of 1989, I was 2 years old. At this time my dad was a HUGE A's fan as was my mom. They were the glory days of Oakland Athletics baseball (the first of such glory since the mid 70s) with the Bash Brothers--Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco. The year before, Jose Canseco had become the first player in history with a 40-HR and 40-steal season. How did that happen? Because he wanted it to happen. In an interview during spring training of 1988 he was told that no one had ever hit 40 HRs and stolen 40 bases in a single season. In response to this, he told reporters that he would be the first to do it.

But October of 1989 was the special one. Armed with the winners of the last three rookie of the year awards (Canseco, McGwire and Walt Weiss), having added former Athletic Rickey Henderson back to the roster through trade and riding the ever-intimidating pitchers Dennis Eckersley and Dave Stewart, the Athletics made the MLB postseason for the second season in a row. This time, their combination of hitting, pitching and basestealing got them into the World Series. Here I was, a two-year old boy, lying in my favorite cozy spot under the coffee table watching the A's rip through the playoffs. At this moment, watching Mark McGwire round the bases in Game 1 of the 1989 ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays after hitting what would be his only HR of the postseason, I became a baseball fan for life.

This marked the beginning of my interest in sports--one the was fueled later that year by the smooth stylings of Marcus Allen and lightning speed (to go along with thunderous power) of Bo Jackson. Then I remember watching in 1993, in the same cozy spot lying underneath the coffee table in our living room, as the Raiders walked off the field with their heads down while the Buffalo Bills celebrated their victory in the AFC Division Playoff game, unable to truly comprehend as a 6-year old why the Raiders' season was over and the Bills got to play next week.

Over the years I fell more and more in love with sports, even as my favorite teams went through their trials. The Raiders moved back to Oakland, but they fell out of contention for the rest of the decade. Howie Long retired after the playoff loss in 1993. Marcus Allen moved on to the Kansas City Chiefs the year before and Bo Jackson suffered a career ending hip injury in 1990 against Boomer Esiason's Cincinnati Bengals. Meanwhile the A's went through their own changes. The Network Associates Coliseum was "renovated" to accommodate the returning Raiders and Mt. Davis was added--blocking the beautiful scenery of the Bay Area. The A's lost Rickey Henderson once again, Mark McGwire dealt with recurring foot injuries, Jose Canseco was traded to the Texas Rangers for Ruben Sierra, Dave Stewart lost his mojo then moved to the Blue Jays and Tony LaRussa's seagulls came to the Coliseum. Meanwhile the Sacramento Kings were giving away basketball tickets at Target stores because apart from the silky-smooth Mitch Richmond, the Kings' teams consisted of names such as Wayman Tisdale, Olden Polynice, Duane Causwell, Lionel Simmons and Walt Williams.

Throughout these difficult time for my favorite sports teams, I can remember some of my favorite childhood memories were going to games at the Coliseum and Arco Arena. Years went by and change occurred. Charles Woodson, Rich Gannon and Jon Gruden teamed up to bring life back to the Raiders franchise. The young and innovative general manager Billy Beane rode Jason Giambi, Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada and the Big 3 to success with the Athletics. And Chris Webber, Jason Williams and Vlade Divac brought energy to a Sacramento Kings franchise that had been the doormat of the league for decades.

And a young boy's interest in sports turned into an irrational fanaticism. That is the journey that has brought me here today. From the time that I fell in love with baseball at 2 years old, lying under the coffee table, there has always been something magical about sports. This blog is meant to be an outlet for myself and all other fans of the three top sports. For those of you who are irrational fanatics or just enjoy a good game on the weekend--you are welcome to come read, comment and interact here.

I will try to be as fair and open to the current events in sports, but I am well aware of my personal bias to the Kings, Raiders and A's. As a result of that, this blog will have a heavy lean to the West Coast--especially the Bay Area. That said, fans of all teams are welcome.